Hiscox has seen an improvement of just under 1 percentage point in its latest forecast for the 2020 year of account (YoA) for its flagship Syndicate 33.

Hiscox – Lloyd's

The syndicate now expects to deliver a result ranging from a loss of 7.5 percent to a profit of 2.5 percent on its £1.698bn capacity for the YoA.

At the midpoint of the range, the latest forecast represents an improvement of 0.75 points on the previous quarterly estimate. 

However, Syndicate 33 has seen a deterioration in its forecast range for the 2021 YoA, which had a capacity of £1.699bn.

The syndicate now expects to deliver a result ranging from a loss of 4.1 percent to a profit of 5.9 percent for the YoA, a reduction of 1.5 points at the midpoint compared with the previous forecast range. 

One of Lloyd’s larger syndicates, Hiscox Syndicate 33 reported a profit of £136.2mn for 2021 on the back of gross written premiums (GWP) of £1.49bn.

Syndicate 33 and SPA 6104 YoA forecasts

The syndicate closed the 2019 YoA with a loss of 1.7 percent of its £1.40bn capacity.

Hiscox also lowered its forecasts for its catastrophe specialist Special Purpose Arrangement (SPA) 6104 for 2020 but improved its forecast range for 2021. 

The SPA is on course for a loss of 3.4 percent to 13.4 percent of its £44mn capacity for the 2020 YoA. This marks a deterioration of 1.0 point at the midpoint compared with its previous quarterly forecast.

For the 2021 YoA the SPA is now expected to report a loss of between 4.5 percent and 19.5 percent on its £23mn capacity, an improvement from its previous forecast of a loss between 12 percent and 22 percent.

SPA 6104 reported a 37.6 percent combined ratio for the 2021 calendar year, delivering a profit of £13.5mn on the back of GWP of £17.8mn.